Chance is a word that is commonly used in everyday life situation, mostly in games of luck where chances of a particular event taking place are discussed. A student may have very good or bright chance of clearing an exam or a boxer may have very slim chance to beat his opponent in a bout.
When a weak team is playing a game of basketball against a very strong team, we say that it has only an outside chance to beat the stronger team or that it has absolutely no chance of winning. It is wise not to treat something that is very very unlikely as if it were impossible see Turner, In fact, if a coin is truly random, it must be possible for heads to come up 1 million times in a row.
Even then, the next flip is just as likely to be heads as it is tails. Nonetheless, many people believe that a coin corrects itself; if heads comes up too often, they think tails is due. To complicate matters, however, there are cases where random events are not completely independent.
With cards, the makeup of the deck is altered as cards are drawn from the deck. As a result, the value of subsequent cards is constrained by what has already been drawn.
Nonetheless, each of the cards that remains in the deck is still equally probable. If, for example, there are only six cards left in a deck, four 7's and two 8's, a 7 is twice as likely to be drawn as an 8, but the specific card, the 7 of spades, has the same probability of being drawn as the 8 of diamonds.
Another key aspect to computing probability is factoring in the number of opportunities for something to occur. The more opportunities there are, the more likely it is that an event will occur. At the same time, the more tickets purchased, the greater the average expected loss.
However, because the expected return is nearly always negative, the player will still lose money, on average, no matter how many tickets the player purchases. This is true whether the player buys several tickets for the same draw or one ticket for every draw. Adding more opportunities e. One final aspect of probability is the fact that the likelihood of two events occurring in combination is always less than the probability of either event occurring by itself.
Friday the 13th, however, only occurs roughly once in days 7 x 30 or once or twice per year. To compute the joint probability of an event, multiply the probability of each of the two events.
It is important to note, however, that the joint probability of two events occurring refers only to events that have not happened yet. Each event is an independent event. It is the cumulative and multiplicative aspects of probability that lead people to overestimate their chances of winning. People tend to underestimate the chance of getting one or two of the same symbols on a slot machine because they do not take into account the number of opportunities.
A number of studies have shown that people can unconsciously learn probability through experience Reber, Powered by. To not miss this type of content in the future, subscribe to our newsletter. Archives: Book 1 Book 2 More. Follow us : Twitter Facebook. Write For Us 7 Tips for Writers. Data Points There are a number of different terms used for probability in statistics. Each has a distinct and usually precise meaning. This article examines some of these terms and shows examples.
Using the right terms can make your own data stories more understandable. If you do work in a field where it's important to be precise, or you just want to clarify their definitions for your own purposes, here are short definitions of the three terms: Probability.
The fraction you would expect to see a certain event occurring in many trials. It is expressed as a real number within the interval [0,1]. It is, simply, the possibility of something happening. When the chance is defined in mathematics, it is called probability.
Probability is the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favourable cases to the whole number of cases possible. Mathematically, the probability of an event occurring is equal to the ratio of a number of cases favourable to particular event to the number of all possible cases.
The theoretical probability of an event is denoted as P E. Assume that we take a coin and toss it, the chances it lands a head is equal to the chances that it lands a tail. Similarly, in any such event, there are equal chances for any of the different cases occurring. For example, in rolling dice, all six numbers are equally likely to be obtained.
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